To date, MLS sales in the Hamilton CMA are down by 23 per cent and are expected to fall 21 per cent in 2009 to 9,600 sales before rising in 2010. In Brantford, MLS sales will fall by 29 per cent this year to 1,500 sales and rise five per cent next year to 1,575 sales. A slowing job market and more cautious consumer spending will dampen existing home demand. Gradual economic recovery will improve housing conditions in 2010.

More first time buyers in the market means that many of the homes being purchased will be less expensive single-detached homes and other entry-level home types such as townhouses and condominium apartments. There will be fewer sales of homes in all sub-markets across the CMA, and prices will fall by more in some of the more expensive markets, or where there was more rapid price growth in recent years.
For example the average prices of single-detached homes in the more expensive markets of Ancaster, Burlington and Flamborough – priced above $400,000 a year ago – fell to $398,000, $363,000 and $334,000, respectively this year. Home sales fell by more than half in all three areas, with the largest drop in sales in Burlington. The average price will fall to $208,000 in Brantford this year.
Because the price drop in Brantford has been less dramatic, fewer buyers are taking advantage of the buyer market conditions. Supporting first time buying, home ownership affordability in Hamilton’s resale market is better today than a year ago as a result of lower home prices and low mortgage rates. Com- paring the average actual incomes of homeowners and renters and the average income required income to own a home allows an evaluation of affordability. Home owners’ actual incomes exceed required incomes more than they did in 2006, indicating that affordability has increased.
Furthermore, home ownership affordability for first time buyers coming from the rental market has significantly improved, assuming that most renter households would take advantage of the variety of accessible mortgage products. The percentage by which required income exceeds the actual average income of renters is now as low as it was in 1996, just prior to the decade-long surge in housing prices. First time buyers represent approximately 15 per cent of all renter households and they will typically have higher annual incomes than most other renters. We will see improved affordability impact the market more in 2010 with economic improvement.
Average new listings will fall in 2009 by about three per cent since fewer home owners are willing to put their homes up for sale in an uncertain market. Declining economic condi- tions in Hamilton will result in slower home buying and selling activity. The typical seller profile will be home owners looking to take advantage of falling prices and move up into a larger home or those who have a pressing need to move out of their current homes. Average sales however will continue to fall at a faster pace than that of listings, and therefore the market will move towards the low end of the balanced market this year. Reviewed by Tanya Hutchens.